Well, this morning, just before 7:30 Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning 6 more weeks of winter is on the way.  This is actually a prediction that is more common than not for the groundhog.

If you are wondering about Punxsutawney Phil’s track-record, I have broken it down for you year by year.

The Last 20 Years:

2009	Phil saw his shadow and Inner Circle President Bill Cooper completed his final interpretation and retired at Gobblers Knob. It was 7:26 a.m.
2008	It was 29 degrees. In front of one of the largest crowds ever at Gobblers’ Knob, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. It was 7:28 a.m.
2007	It was a cloudy morning with light snow flurries when Phil emerged from his burrow at about 7:26 a.m. and did not see his shadow.
2006	Phil saw his shadow while wearing his Steeler “Terrible Towel” at 7:25 a.m. The temperature was a balmy 38 degrees
2005	The sky was clear as Phil saw his shadow before an enthusiastic crowd of 10-18,000. The time was 7:31 a.m. It was Phil’s 119th prediction.
2004	Phil saw his shadow at 7:27 in 8 degree weather. Event was webcast live on www.groundhog.org.
2003	Phil saw his shadow at 7:25 AM as Pennsylvania’s newly elected Governor Ed Rendell looked on from Gobbler’s Knob.
2002	Phil saw his shadow at the largest event in 116 year history with estimated 30,000 people celebrating 02/02/02.
2001	Phil’s prediction of 6 more weeks of winter weather was displayed on the Astrovision in New York’s Time Square.
2000	It was the dawn of a new “Phillenium” and 12-degrees at Gobbler’s Knob when Phil saw his shadow at 7:28 AM.
1999	Over 15,000 people celebrated as Phil saw no shadow at 7:23 AM and predicted and early spring
1998	Saw Shadow 7:20AM Six more weeks of “El Nino” Winter
1997	No Shadow 7:25AM. Made his 110th prediction. Largest crowd the Knob has seen 35,000 people
1996	Saw Shadow 7:21 So cold he dug deep to make his prediction.
1995	No Shadow Guested on the Oprah Winfrey TV Show and made new fans.
1994	Saw Shadow 7:28 AM.
1993	Saw Shadow. “Groundhog Day” The movie with Bill Murray was released in time for PHIL’S Prediction.
1992	Saw Shadow.
1991	Saw Shadow
1990	No Shadow!

All Previous Records:

1886        Groundhog Day first recognized in Punxsutawney by Weathers Wags.   No Record

1887        First Official trek to Gobbler’s Knob  Saw Shadow.

1888        Saw Shadow.

1889        No Record.

1890        No Shadow.

1891        No Record.

1892        No Record.

1893        No Record.

1894        No Record.

1895        No Record.

1896        No Record.

1897        No Record.

1898        Saw Shadow.

1899        No Record. Groundhog Club founded

1900        Saw Shadow.

1901        Saw Shadow.

1902        Probably No Shadow.

1903        Saw Shadow.

1904        Saw Shadow.

1905        Saw Shadow.

1906        Saw Shadow.

1907        Saw Shadow. First Official Trek to Gobblers Knob

1908        Saw Shadow;  First  front  page coverage.

1909        Saw Shadow.

1910        Saw Shadow.

1911        Saw Shadow; “55 couples at Groundhog Day Dance.”

1912        Saw Shadow.

1913        Saw Shadow at 8:08 AM; first newspaper photo of Groundhog by John Frampton.  A new dance “The Groundhog Roll” was demonstrated by Joe Winslow.

 

1914        Saw Shadow at 9:34 AM, Groundhog demonstrated “The Groundhog Flop”

1915        Saw Shadow at 11:45           AM; His name – Wiley        William Woodchuck!

1916        Saw Shadow at 9:07;            First films of the event.

1917        Saw Shadow at 9:07.

1918        Saw Shadow; Temperature 18 below zero.

1919        Saw Shadow.

1920        Saw Shadow.

1921        Saw Shadow at 7:17 AM.

1922        Saw Shadow 7:11 AM;        Groundhog Holiday             Dance.

1923        Saw Shadow.

1924        Saw Shadow 7:13 AM;        First appearance of logo     with groundhog with           umbrella and newspaper 1925.  Saw Shadow 8:13 AM;  CJ Margiotti gave      groundhog tradition to the Pittsburgh Travel Club.

1926        Saw Shadow at 9:17 AM.

1927        Saw Shadow at 8:35 AM.

1928        Saw Shadow at 10 AM; Program with Punx’y Rotary Club was on KDKA Radio.

1929        Predicted six more weeks of winter before sunrise.

1930        Saw Shadow at 7:11 AM.

1931        Saw Shadow at 12:27 AM.

1932        Saw Shadow at 9:11 AM.

1933        Saw Shadow.

1934        No Shadow.

1935        Saw Shadow at 9:11 AM.

1936        Saw Shadow at 10:27 AM.

1937        Saw Shadow at 9:09 AM; Unfortunate meeting with a skunk.

 

1938        Saw Shadow at 9 AM; Blackest shadow in history.

1939        Saw Shadow at 9:10 AM.

1940        Saw Shadow at 9 AM; Pictured with first Groundhog Day Queen, Miss Margaret Hunam.

1941        Saw Shadow at 4:25 PM; Six Groundhog Girls.

1942        Partial Shadow at 7:40 AM; “War clouds have blacked out parts of the shadow.” (”The Spirit,” Feb. 2, 1942).

1943        Groundhog didn’t make an appearance; need to rely on Quarryville’s prediction.

1944        Saw Shadow at 9:10 AM.

1945        Saw Shadow at 9 AM.

1946        Saw Shadow at 7:52 AM.

1947        Saw Shadow at 7:37 AM; First newspaper photo of Groundhog Club members at Gobbler’s Knob.

1948        Saw Shadow at 8:46 AM; Dr. Frank Lorenzo was interviewed on KDKA Radio’s “Brunch With Bill” program.

1949        Saw Shadow at 7:32 AM.

1950        No Shadow; Colleen Townsend, actress, was in town to promote the film, “When Willie Comes Marching Home.”

1951        Saw Shadow at 8:41 AM; Pictured with cheerleaders from PHS and SSCD.  Betty Byers, Joan Wadding, Dorothy Armstrong and Kathleen Spinelli.

1952 Saw Shadow at 7:52 AM; First appearance of Frau Groundhog, Groundhog procession and shadow. Casting was on Dave Garroway’s TV Show on NBC on Monday, February 4.
1953 Saw Shadow at 7:38 AM; First year with Sam Light as Groundhog Club president; First Man-of-the-Year Award goes to Ben Levy.
1954 Saw Shadow at 8:03 AM; The groundhog was turned completely white from worry.
1955 Saw Shadow at 8:51 AM; 4-inch snowfall on Groundhog Day; Coverage on three TV stations.
1956 Saw Shadow 8:33 AM.
1957 Saw Shadow 7:47 AM.
1958 Saw Shadow at 8:27 AM; Prepared for blast-off in his “Chucknik” spacecraft; First Woman-of-the-Year Award was given to Mrs. Louis (Olive) Woodring.
1959 Saw Shadow at 8:23 AM; Announces that he has returned from a successful trip to the moon.
1960 Saw Shadow at 7:33 AM,
forecasts extremely bad weather; appearance on the “Today” show.
1961 Saw Shadow at 7:41 AM; 25 below zero.
1962 Saw Shadow at 7:29 AM; Just returned from second trip to the moon.
1963 Saw Shadow at 7:41 AM; Unusually dark shadow.
1964 Saw Shadow.
1965 Saw Shadow shortly before 8 AM.
1966 Saw Shadow at 7:21 AM.
1967 Saw Shadow 7:25 AM.
1968 Saw Shadow 7:29 AM.
1969 Saw Shadow 7:29 AM.
1970 No Shadow.
1971 Saw Shadow at 7:29 AM; 14 below zero.
1972 Saw Shadow 7:30 AM.
1973 Saw Shadow 7:29 AM.
1974 Saw Shadow 8:28 AM.
1975 No Shadow; Declared at 7:31 AM.
1976 Saw Shadow at 7:29 AM.
1977 Saw Shadow at 7:27; In midst of energy crisis.
1978 Saw Shadow at 7:28 AM.
1979 Saw Shadow at 7:28 AM.
1980 Saw Shadow at 7:29 AM.
1981 Saw Shadow at 7:27 AM.
1982 Saw Shadow 7:26 AM; After coldest January in more than a century.
1983 No Shadow; Peered over at 7:29 AM, but saw no shadow; predicted an early spring after a mild winter.
1984 Saw Shadow shortly after 7 AM.
1985 Saw Shadow at 7:28 AM.
1986 No Shadow!
Visited President Reagan at the White House in March.
1987 Saw Shadow 7:29 AM.
1988 No Shadow.
1989 Saw Shadow.
1990 No Shadow.
1991 Saw Shadow.
1992 Saw Shadow.
1993 Saw Shadow. “Groundhog Day” The movie with Bill Murray was released in time for PHIL’S Prediction.
1994 Saw Shadow 7:28 AM.
1995 No Shadow
Guested on the Oprah
Winfrey TV Show and
made new fans.
1996 Saw Shadow 7:21
So cold he dug deep to make his prediction.
1997 No Shadow 7:25AM. Made his 110th prediction. Largest crowd the Knob has seen 35,000 people
1998 Saw Shadow 7:20AM
Six more weeks of “El Nino” Winter

1999 Over 15,000 people
celebrated as Phil saw no shadow at 7:23 AM and predicted and early spring
2000 It was the dawn of a new “Phillenium” and 12-degrees at Gobbler’s Knob when Phil saw his shadow at 7:28 AM.
2001 Phil’s prediction of 6 more weeks of winter weather was displayed on the Astrovision in New York’s Time Square.
2002 Phil saw his shadow at the largest event in 116 year history with estimated 30,000 people celebrating 02/02/02
2003 Phil saw his shadow at 7:25 AM as Pennsylvania’s newly elected Governor Ed Rendell looked on from Gobbler’s Knob.
2004 Phil saw his shadow at 7:27
in 8 degree weather. Event
was webcast live on
www.groundhog.org.

2005 The sky was clear as Phil
saw his shadow before an
enthusiastic crowd of
10-18,000. The time was
7:31 a.m. It was Phil’s
119th prediction.

2006 Phil saw his shadow while wearing his Steeler “Terrible Towel” at 7:25 a.m. The temperature was a balmy 38 degrees.

2007 It was a cloudy
morning with light
snow flurries when Phil
emerged from his
burrow at about 7:26
a.m. and did not see his
shadow.

2008 At 7:28 a.m. it was 29 degrees. In front of one of the largest crowds ever at Gobblers’ Knob, Punxsutawney Phil saw his
shadow.

2009 At 7:26 Phil saw his shadow and Inner Circle President Bill Cooper completed his final interpretation and retired at Gobblers Knob.

SAW SHADOW 98

NO SHADOW 15

NO RECORD 10

Thanks to Captain Dan from WYNE-AM 1530 which is part of our Storm Team Weather Radio Network, for sending this interesting article my way!

Professor may face jail if LA weatherman harassed

Comments

BURBANK, Calif. (Map, News) -

Authorities say a college professor on a crusade to change the way a Los Angeles weatherman uses terminology has to leave him alone or face six months in jail. 

Melanie Patton Renfrew, a Harbor College teacher, wants KNBC-TV’s Fritz Coleman to change references to onshore and offshore winds.

She says the terms are confusing because people don’t know which are coming and which are going.

Burbank-based KNBC obtained a restraining order in March 2008 after calling her behavior bizarre and saying Coleman feared for his safety.

Prosecutors say she continued sending letters and e-mails. Last month, she pleaded no contest to violating the order.

Burbank Assistant City Attorney Denny Wei says the case will be dismissed if she leaves Coleman alone through next August.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Usually the Storm Team gets an advanced copy of the Almanac.  This year our weather center has yet to be graced by the book.  That is beside the point. 

The Winter prediction by the Farmer’s is, however, making headlines for it’s predictions of “Numbing cold” on the way to a good chunk of the country this winter.  For us, the news is sort of mixed mixed.  According to the almanac, we will be bitterly cold, but not have to worry about as much snow!  Basically, freeze Lake Erie early, cut off the lake effect.

Here is an Associated Press breakdown of the 2010 Winter Prediction:

While the National Weather Service’s prediction is generally for a milder Winter, the Climate Prediction Center’s (Part of the National Weather Service) discussion says:

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THIS EVENT (El Nino) IS CONSIDERED IN THE SEASONAL FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY AT LONGER LEAD TIMES.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Unless you live in a deep hole, you have noticed that this July in Erie has been anything but July-like.  Typically we would be basking in the “dog days” of Summer by now, but not this year.  I almost feel like putting up a “have you seen my dog” sign in hopes that it would bring back something that resembled a day that needed to be “dogged”.

In fact, it has been so cool this July that we could be on pace to end this month as the coldest July since they started taking records over 100 years ago! Lets go over the data…

An average July, after taking into consideration both the high and low tempreatures, would average 72.1 degrees Fahrenheit.  So far this year we have averaged 65.6 degrees, which is almost a full degree cooler than the coldest July on record (1976).

Now, we have a full week left in the month, and the models are indicating some warmer weather on the way.  So, we may not sit in the top spot much longer.  However. it may be safe to already say that we will make it into the top 10 when it comes to the coldest.

For reference, here is the top 10 list of the years in which Erie’s July was the coldest from the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

1.  1976 (66.4)

2.   1971 (66.9)

3.  1975 (67.5)

4.  1979 (67.6)

5.  2000 (67.8)

6.  1972 (68.4)

7.  1956 (68.6)

8.  1920 (68.6)

9.  1954 (68.7)

10. 1957 & 1967 (68.8)

–Meteorologist Ray Petelin

I though I would share a cool picture with you.  This image (click it to make it bigger) was taken by an Expedition 20 crew member on the International Space Station.  It is of a volcano eruption in Russia’s Kuril Islands on June 12th.

To read more about this volcano and eruption, you can visit NASA’s story about it by CLICKING HERE.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

State Police tells Newswatch that several roads in #Erie County are covered with water!  They were too busy to give a detailed list.  Give yourself extra time on your morning commute, and do NOT travel through water covering the roadways!!!

THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130am.

Newswatch is getting reports of flooded roadways!  Interchange and 99 has water covering the roadways.  This may be rather common this morning with the heavy rains overnight into this morning.

NOTE: NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER COVERING A ROADWAY!  Floods are the NUMBER ONE cause of weather-related deaths.  TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!

Here is the 6am image of Storm Track 4D’s rainfall estimates.  This is a look at how much rain may have fallen over the last 3 hours (between 3am and 6am).  Heavy rains like this will lead to flooding, and with standing water still on the ground, more flooding my be possible later today as well. 

This morning’s FLOOD WARNING remains in effect until at least 11:30am.

Ray Petelin

A “Cut Off” area of low pressure will be setting some nasty weather loose on the region this week.  These “cut off” or “upper level” lows, as they are called, are responsible for bringing rather cool temperatures, clouds, fog, lake effect rain (or snow in the right season), and even thunderstorms if some sunshine peeks between the clouds.

When an area of low press breaks free, or cuts itself free of the jet stream, it removes itself from the winds that push it across the map.  The result is at leas a few days of rather crummy weather.  Also, this is a weather patern that is not typical for summer either.  Usually you see this set-up in late fall or early spring. 

Upper Level lows are difficult to forecast as well, so make sure you are aware of changes to the forecast that may pop up.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist